On December 15, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council promulgated the Notice on Implementation Plan for Tariffs in 2011. The new policy is still strictly controlling exports. Urea and ammonium phosphate are high-tariff for 8 months next year, 110% of which is high. Tariffs are basically difficult to export, so that a large amount of fertilizers will remain in the country to protect the domestic market supply. At the same time, it will also increase the competitiveness of the domestic market, because China's urea capacity and ammonium phosphate production capacity are excess. Due to the large amount of fertilizer exports in the second half of this year, coupled with energy-saving emission reduction and other factors caused by urea production, in the end of this year, early next year because of the need to make up the inventory, the supply and demand of the domestic market may not be too prominent, but to 3,4 After the month, the contradiction between supply and demand will begin to show up. It is possible that this year's peak season prices will reappear.
Relatively speaking, high tariffs have a greater impact on the phosphate fertilizer market than the urea market. This year, the Chinese market for diammonium phosphate has been relatively strong. The main reason is that large amounts of exports are supporting. After the tightening of tariff policies next year, the difficulty in exporting ammonium phosphate will increase significantly. The influence and relevance of the international market on the domestic market will be reduced. A large number of ammonium phosphate products will remain in the country and will inevitably increase the fierce competition.
In terms of prices, during the tariff season of export season, high tariff policies will block the correlation between domestic fertilizer prices and international fertilizer prices. Even if the price of international fertilizers rises significantly, the impact on domestic fertilizer prices will not be too great. The domestic fertilizer prices will be determined more by the characteristics of the domestic fertilizer market itself. In the export off-season tariff period, the correlation between domestic fertilizer prices and international fertilizer prices will be very high, because the fertilizer exports at this time are basically barrier-free and can be freely exported. At this time, many companies maximize the benefits. The principle is to determine whether to export, if the export price is high, then the export; if the domestic price is high, then it will be sold in the country, so that the domestic price is basically the same as the export price, and the international price basically becomes the pricing standard of the domestic price. However, due to the reduction of benchmark prices in the new tariff scheme, even in the off-season, the impact of international prices on the domestic market has also been reduced. For example, when the urea export price is 2,300 yuan (t price, the same below), the previous tax rate is 7%, equivalent to the pre-tax ex-factory price of 2,150 yuan; and according to the new tariff scheme, the tax rate is 15.7%, equivalent to pre-tax ex-factory The price is 1988 yuan, so even if the export price is the same, due to the difference in the export tax rate, the actual ex-factory price is reduced by 2150 yuan - 1988 yuan = 162 yuan. Since many enterprises use domestic export prices to set domestic sales prices, they are equivalent to reducing domestic prices by 162 yuan.
It should be pointed out that some dealers, especially retailers, still misunderstand the benchmark price, linking the benchmark price with the past government limit price, and that the benchmark price is the government price limit, saying that the ex-factory price of urea is only 1950 yuan. , It hasn’t reached 2,100 yuan. In fact, the benchmark price is not directly related to the domestic price. It is a tax term and is the basis for valuation when the export tax is collected. However, the level of the benchmark price will affect the export, and then it will have a certain impact on the domestic market.
Relatively speaking, high tariffs have a greater impact on the phosphate fertilizer market than the urea market. This year, the Chinese market for diammonium phosphate has been relatively strong. The main reason is that large amounts of exports are supporting. After the tightening of tariff policies next year, the difficulty in exporting ammonium phosphate will increase significantly. The influence and relevance of the international market on the domestic market will be reduced. A large number of ammonium phosphate products will remain in the country and will inevitably increase the fierce competition.
In terms of prices, during the tariff season of export season, high tariff policies will block the correlation between domestic fertilizer prices and international fertilizer prices. Even if the price of international fertilizers rises significantly, the impact on domestic fertilizer prices will not be too great. The domestic fertilizer prices will be determined more by the characteristics of the domestic fertilizer market itself. In the export off-season tariff period, the correlation between domestic fertilizer prices and international fertilizer prices will be very high, because the fertilizer exports at this time are basically barrier-free and can be freely exported. At this time, many companies maximize the benefits. The principle is to determine whether to export, if the export price is high, then the export; if the domestic price is high, then it will be sold in the country, so that the domestic price is basically the same as the export price, and the international price basically becomes the pricing standard of the domestic price. However, due to the reduction of benchmark prices in the new tariff scheme, even in the off-season, the impact of international prices on the domestic market has also been reduced. For example, when the urea export price is 2,300 yuan (t price, the same below), the previous tax rate is 7%, equivalent to the pre-tax ex-factory price of 2,150 yuan; and according to the new tariff scheme, the tax rate is 15.7%, equivalent to pre-tax ex-factory The price is 1988 yuan, so even if the export price is the same, due to the difference in the export tax rate, the actual ex-factory price is reduced by 2150 yuan - 1988 yuan = 162 yuan. Since many enterprises use domestic export prices to set domestic sales prices, they are equivalent to reducing domestic prices by 162 yuan.
It should be pointed out that some dealers, especially retailers, still misunderstand the benchmark price, linking the benchmark price with the past government limit price, and that the benchmark price is the government price limit, saying that the ex-factory price of urea is only 1950 yuan. , It hasn’t reached 2,100 yuan. In fact, the benchmark price is not directly related to the domestic price. It is a tax term and is the basis for valuation when the export tax is collected. However, the level of the benchmark price will affect the export, and then it will have a certain impact on the domestic market.
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