Pork prices continue to rise

CSC believes that although the rise in pork prices in the future has become an unquestionable fact, the state has realized the impact of pork prices on inflation and strengthened the regulation of pork prices. The future price of pork will continue its current trend, but it will not appear in 2008's soaring situation.

The continuously rising pork prices hit a new high during the year. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average wholesale price of pork was 8.735 yuan/kg last week. The national pork price rose continuously for 12 weeks, while the retail meat price in Chengdu was close to 13 yuan/kg. In the face of rising pork prices, market analysts said that due to the approaching National Day holiday, pork prices in the country may continue to run high, and related listed companies may have trading opportunities.

Recent meat prices remain high

As far as the Chengdu market is concerned, according to the reporter’s understanding, the price of retail lean meat in Chengdu at the beginning of this month was close to RMB 13/kg, and the price showed a further upward trend. The analysis from the Chengdu Price Bureau held that compared with previous years, the main reason for the increase in pork prices in the retail market was due to severe natural disasters affecting parts of the country this year, especially in most areas of Sichuan affected by natural disasters. Affected by a certain degree, the rigid demand for pork products in the disaster-stricken areas increased, which directly led to the increase in pork prices in Chengdu. According to the latest price monitoring results of Chengdu Price Bureau, the average retail price of lean meat in Chengdu (including districts and cities and counties) is 12.74 yuan/kg, and that of boneless meat is 11.16 yuan/kg, which is higher than the price during the Spring Festival this year. About 1.5 yuan / kg, compared with the average retail price in June this year rose about 3 yuan / kg.

In fact, while pork prices have been rising all the way, the price of food has also been rising. According to the commercial forecast monitoring released by the Ministry of Commerce yesterday, the market price of edible agricultural products monitored by 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country rose by 0.2% from the previous week (from August 30 to September 5). Week, the cumulative increase of 5.5%.

However, the reporter was informed that the "Pig Food Price Ratio", which represents the balance of farmers, has shown signs of stabilization and has now returned to near the breakeven point of 6:1. The policy report released by the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that as the domestic pork consumption season begins around the Mid-Autumn Festival, the recovery of pork prices will continue to be maintained, but the ratio of live pigs to live pigs still stands at 10.7%, which is higher than 9 -10% normal level, it is expected that the supply of pigs in the latter period is guaranteed, and the price of live pigs is unlikely to rise sharply.

Meat prices will not continue to soar

Huatai United Securities stated that under the policy support and the relatively weak food supply expectation, there is a greater likelihood that food prices will remain firm. At present, the pig-to-grain ratio is consistently below the break-even level, and the enthusiasm of the farmers for hog farming will continue to be weighed down. It is expected that the reduction in hog supply in the third quarter will affect the continued rebound in prices.

Jinyuan Securities said that since 2009, the number of herds has gradually declined, with 456 million heads in January 2009 and now almost 440 million heads, and her ability to sow herds from 50 million heads to 46.3 million heads now. The average national market price is from At the beginning of June, it was 9.8 yuan/kg, which has risen to 12.63 yuan/kg now. The arrival of the peak season in the fourth quarter and the decrease in the number of people in the fourth quarter are expected to rebound in the fourth quarter.

However, as for the trend of pork prices in the afternoon, CSC believes that although the rise in pork prices in the future has become an unquestionable fact, the state has realized the impact of pork prices on inflation and strengthened the regulation of pork prices. The future price of pork will continue its current trend, but it will not appear in 2008's soaring situation.

Specific to listed companies, CITIC Securities said that domestic food may rise steadily and pork prices are expected to continue to rise. Devaluation of Denghai Seed Industry, Longping Hi-Tech, Fengle Seed Industry, Nanning Sugar Industry, China Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., and Shunxin Agriculture, focusing on Dunhuang Seed Industry, Zhengbang Technology, Shengnong Development, Haida Group, Zhangzi Island, Yihua Wood, etc. Related listed company.

Focus on two investment leads

Zheshang Securities believes that such large pig breeding companies as Xinwufeng can directly benefit from rising hog prices. Even if the live hog price does not appear to continue to rise in the future, but as the farmers begin mass slaughter of sows, the supply and demand conditions of live pigs will also change, then the live pig prices are likely to rise substantially next year. In this context, investors can focus on two trading investment clues: First, pork prices rose by more than 5% in the next month and continue to rise, then the performance of related listed companies is more likely than expected; the other is In the future, the price of live pigs will continue to slump, and the number of sows on hand will decline. Investors can therefore be concerned about the trading opportunities of listed companies that have seen a sharp rebound in their 2011 results.

In fact, the "Measures for the Management of Big Pigs Rewarding Funds for Large Pigs" issued by the Ministry of Finance at the beginning of this month (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures") is actually for listed companies such as Gaojin Food, Fucheng Wufeng and other pig breeding companies. Words are equally good. The "Measures" stated that it supports the implementation of the project of integrating the pig industrial chain and guiding the effective link between production and marketing of large pig industrialized leading enterprises. The policy is clear, and the reward funds for pigs transferred from big counties will be allocated directly to the county. The funds will be used for special funds, which are mainly used for the transformation of large-scale farmers, live pig production expenditures, loan discounts for pig circulation and processing, and other aspects.